NFL Week 7 10/24-10/25

[BlackampGold]

All Plays One Unit
Preseason Straight Plays: 16-9-0 64.00% +6.47U
Regular Season Straight Plays: 25-18 58.14% +5.71U
Total Straight Plays: 41-27 60.29% +12.18U

Half-time Plays: 0-2 0.00% -2.05U
Money Line Underdogs: 0-1 0.00% -1.00U
Teasers: 1-1 50.00% +0.00U
Total = +9.13U






Philadelphia/Cleveland UNDER 41.5 -107


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[MARTEL910]

Early posting this week my friend but I love the pick, I know when you have a play like this nice and early its usually a winner, I will ride with you on this bad boy.....

 

[BlackampGold]

Thanks Martel - I have this game capped already and I wanted to grab it at 41.5 before it falls to 41 like it already has at Pinnacle. I should have time this weekend to do write-ups for the picks including this one.

 

[Glaken]

Thanks for the early heads up.

 

[BlackampGold]

Chicago/Tampa Bay UNDER 33 -111

 

[BlackampGold]

Philadelphia/Cleveland UNDER 41.5 -107


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Philly allows an average of 11 points away & Cleveland allows an average of 11 points at home. Both teams are stingy versus the run away and home respectively - Philly allows 3.5 YPR & Cleveland 3.2. This will make it difficult to sustain drives by leaving the offense in 3rd and longs. Philly has allowed teams in the red zone 15 times and allowed only 5 touchdowns. Over 3 home games, CLE has only allowed 1 passing TD. The Browns O-line lacks the athleticism necessary to react to Philly's complicated blitz schemes. Kearse & Simon also present mismatches for their line so Garcia is going to face a ton of pressure which should slow the Browns attack.

 

[BlackampGold]

Chicago/Tampa Bay UNDER 33 -111

The Bears have had some success running the ball BUT Quinn & the passing game is struggling. TB will load up and stop the run. They only allow 2.9 YPR at home as it is. In 2 games with Quinn, the Bears have scored 19 points total. The Bucs defense allowed a total of 26 points at home versus Seattle & Denver so it doesn't look good for DA Bears. In 2 road games, David Terrell has 2 catches for 25 yards total. The Bears have not allowed a rushing TD all season and have allowed just 6 passing TDs. These defenses rank 7th and 8th in red zone efficiency. The Bears have allowed just 7 TDs in 20 attempts and TB 6 in 12. Furthermore, both of these offenses struggle in the red zone as CHI has 7 TDs in 17 chances and TB just 4 in 13.

 

[BlackampGold]

Dallas/Green Bay OVER 44 -104

 

[EasyMoney]

Black,

Have you ever done a breakup on your side plays and your totals plays. Your totals seem to always be good.

I actually just went through the first 6 weeks of the NFL contest thread and I believe you were 15-4-1 on over/ under plays.

Just curious to know what your record is for over/ under plays.

 

[JuiceFree]

I hope you are correct on your plays Black (for your sake of course). I won't be playing on or against any of those, but I would like to note that I do have slight leans towards the OVER, in both the Philly game and Tampa Game.

 

[BlackampGold]

Easy Money - It is ironic that you bring that up as this week I was wondering the same thing. I actually haven't kept a breakdown b/w totals & sides. If I have time, I will try and research back and figure it out. I will tell you that it seems as if 75% of my plays have been totals this season. Good luck today!

 

[ACE-ACE]

I THINK EASY RIGHT 15-4.....THE LAST 6 WEEK YOU ARE ONE OF TEN I WRITE DOWN......GOOD JOB THAT 79 %....THAT MAKE YOU THE BEST IN OVER AND UNDER:aktion033

 

[BlackampGold]

Dallas/Green Bay OVER 44 -104

Dallas won't be able to help but have a respectable rushing attack versus a GB defense allowing an average of 217 yards/game at home. They will only need enough to open up a passing game which should thrive versus the Pack. Al Harris should do a decent job with Keyshawn but then the matchups are bad from there for GB. Look for Dallas to spread the field and for Vinny to spread the ball around. Dime LB Barnett is struggling and Cowboys can exploit him in 3 & 4 WR sets. GB struggles to get a consistent pass rush from their front four. Blitzing likely will only allow DAL to expose GB with Anderson & Witten underneath. On the other side, DAL is playing without 3 regulars in their secondary and Newman has struggled. Not counting Cleveland, DAl has allowed 7 WR TDs in 4 games. They even allowed Mark Brunell to throw for 325 and 2 TDs against them. Both defenses are poor in the red zone allowing 10 TDs in 15 chances apiece.




6 1/2 point TEASE Tampa Bay -.5 & Seattle/Arizona UNDER 47 -110

I covered the Tampa game earlier and I'll use them to win SU to get a better line with this Seattle total. Arizona kept NE to 23 points & New Orleans to just 10 points in 2 home games this season. Arizona is allowing only a 20% (4-20) TD ratio in the red-zone. CB Duane Starks returns for AZ and that will assist nicely in defending SEA's 3 and 4 WR sets. AZ's offensive tackles have struggled as McCown has been sacked 16 times in 5 games. Seattle allowed the Rams & Patriots to score some points but almost completely shut down New Orleans(7), TB (6), and SF(0) before that. I'd say the Cardinals are closer to these three offenses than the Rams or Pats. Seattle shut out AZ in AZ last season.

 

[BlackampGold]

ACE - thanks very much, keep up the good work yourself.

 

[BlackampGold]

Tennessee/Minnesota OVER 53.5 -107

TEN is averaging 35 pts/game last 6 versus the NFC. MIN is allowing 27 pts/game L5 versus the AFC. TEN has alowed 76.5%(13/17) of opponnets trips to the red-zone result in TDs and Minnesota will be there all day long as they have made 24 trips to the red zone this season. Culpepper has 13 TDs in his last 4 home games and TEN is alloing almost 2 passing TDs per game to "normal" quarterbacks. Ten defense has allowed 5.4 YPR on the road this season and the MIN O-line is opening up huge holes for the backs as it is. TEN also averages 4.9 YPR away while MIN allows 4.4. Moss or no Moss, I just do not see the punters even needing to suit up in this one so I'll take my chances.

 

[BlackampGold]

San Diego/Carolina OVER 41 -115


CAR has been run all over this season, ranking 29th in the league allowing 144 YPG. At home, they have given up 158.5 YPG. Tomlinson and SD do not have a problem running against good run defenses so this could get ugly. DE Jenkins out for CAR makes things even worse. SD should move the ball quite well and they have been capitalizing as well with 13 TDs in 19 trips to the red zone. SD has ceded multiple TD passes in 4 of L5 games. They key for CARolina's offensive hopes is pass protection. SD CB Davis is struggling so expect CAR to attack him if Delhomme has time. SD has allowed opponets to have 23 red zone opportunities and have allowed 14 TDs(60.9%). CAR offense has gone up against some very tough defenses and have only made 10 trips to the red zone. The good news is that they scored TDs 8 out of ten and are facing a much weaker defense this week.

 

[kadherty]

From another board:

PHILADELPHIA Has covered the number last 5, they have also covered the number the last 8 on the road, dating back to 10/12/03

ST. LOUIS Has not had a total this low in their last 20 dating back to 9/20/03.
Actually, ST. LOUIS hasn't had a total this low in over 100 regular season games, dating back to 12/3/98. The average total for ST. LOUIS is 46.
The average total for ST. LOUIS on the road is 44½

MIAMI has not covered the number at home the last 9 dating back to 9/21/03

DALLAS has not had a total this high in their last 20 dating back to 9/20/03.
The average total for DALLAS is 37.
DALLAS has not had a total this high on the road dating back to 9/29/02 The average total for DALLAS on the road is 37
The average total for DALLAS (last 20) when playing on a grass surface is 37, with 14 of 20 playing under the posted total.

 

[ACE-ACE]

you must be working hard....your last 3 pick were 20min apart

i will check back in 20 min.....

dont forget the dimeplayer nfl challenge.......im right behind you.....

 

[BlackampGold]

:digit: B&G hustling to finish his capping....


:drink: all done NOW!



Last 2 plays of the day fellas -



Buffalo/Baltimore UNDER 32 +100

Bills S Milloy is back this week and Jamal Lewis is suspended. Add a playmaker on D and remove a playmaker on O. The Ravens offense has been non-existent as it is, reaching the red-zone just 10 times and scoring a TD only 4 times. Buffalo's defense has allowed 4 TDs in 14 chances in the red zone. The Bills have allowed just one running back TD this season and only one team has rushed for triple yardage. Considering the only strength of the Ravens offense is the running game..not a good matchup for the Ravens. Lewis out is gravy. The Bills have given up a league high 20 sacks in 5 games and the Ravens have 9 players with at least one sack. Not including Priest Holmes, the Ravens have not allowed a rushing TD at home since 2002. Lee Evans is a deep threat but Ed Reed will be lurking back there. Of course, the under-killer is always the Ravens defensive and special teams TDs but that is why it is called gambling. Too much defense and not enough offense not to make this play.



Oakland -3 -114


I know Oakland's running game has been struggling but c'mon, its the Saints. NO has allowed 151 YPG on the ground this season and 10 rushing TDs in 5 games. CB Ashley Ambrose will miss the game and the Saints remaining corners do not have the speed to run with Oakland downfield. The Saints do not blitz often which will work in Oakland's favor because Collins needs time to get the ball deep. The strength of the Raiders defense is its corners so the Saints will not have the advantage in the passing game as they normally do. Furthermore, Horn's production is slipping partly due to an injured knee and he hasn't scored versus an AFC team since 2000. Donte Stallworth is questionable with a rib injury and he has a history of low tolerance to pain so at the very least it will affect him. Over the L3 seasons, the Saints have played 9 games on grass and they have scored b/w 10-19 points in all nine games.



FINAL CARD

Buffalo/Baltimore UNDER 32 +100
Philadelphia/Cleveland UNDER 41.5 -107
Tennessee/Minnesota OVER 53.5 -107
San Diego/Carolina OVER 41 -115
Chicago/Tampa Bay UNDER 33 -111
Dallas/Green Bay OVER 44 -104
Oakland -3 -114
6 1/2 point TEASE Tampa Bay -.5 & Seattle/Arizona UNDER 47 -110





GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!!!!!!

 

[sportsbet]

Good job this year bud...but the avatar has to go. :toast:

sb